Not all accidents are avoidable, but many occur when prior alerts and warning signs are overlooked or missed. Risks are compounded when drilling operations are taking place in deeper water and harsher environments. It is critical for operators and drilling contractors to proactively manage risk when offshore units are working in exceptionally challenging areas.
ABS and Safetec Nordic AS, an ABS Group company that provides integrated risk and asset management services for the offshore industry, are working together to develop a blowout risk model that couples historical operational experience with risk analyses using a novel methodology. The goal is to be able to detect and manage accident sequence precursor (ASP) indicators – signs that an accident is about to happen – so preventive measures can be taken to avoid a catastrophic event.
Offshore incident investigations often show us that prior to an accident, there are warning signsIf detected and managed, these precursor indicators can provide offshore personnel with critical information that could ultimately help them prevent accident progression leading into a catastrophic incident.
Although the terminology may sound complicated, the concept is relatively simple. Precursors are operational events or deviations from the norm that have the potential to result in an accident. Precursors can include incidents, near misses and unusual system conditions encountered during routine operations, inspections, testing and engineering evaluations.
The team that developed the risk model used historical accident and reliability data, relevant offshore industry experience and accident investigation reports from the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
ABS is working toward validating this new risk management approach that can detect precursors to major events so that the probability of a major offshore accident can be reduced.I believe the ASP methodology is a comprehensive approach because it addresses not only the technical factors but also operational and organizational factors.
While progress is ongoing to apply ASP to offshore operations, there is a need for an industry wide effort to collect real-world precursor data related to well integrity and model testing before this methodology can be integrated into a daily risk management program.
Offshore incidents can have a devastating impact on crew safety, offshore assets and the environment. Tools that provide proactive risk management like ABS’ ASP Program heighten awareness, offer enhanced reliability and help mitigate risk.
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